主題
March 23, 2025
The notion of halting the Russia-Ukraine conflict through sophisticated deal-making has been championed by former U.S. President Donald Trump. It has been suggested that Trump believes his exceptional negotiation skills could mediate between Ukraine and Russia to end the war. However, this proposal appears to have been dismissed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who seemingly regards Trump’s calls for a ceasefire as little more than rhetoric. This reaction is not unexpected, as the prevention of a third world war is increasingly seen not as a matter of feasibility but as a question of timing. Regrettably, the fundamental drivers of such a global conflict are often misunderstood. The existence of objective conditions fueling a potential World War III is widely acknowledged.
The underlying causes of global conflicts can be summarized as follows. First, vengeance for past defeats is sought, with Germany’s actions following World War II being a prominent example. Second, expansion of development space is pursued when current limitations are perceived, challenging the established hegemony is the only answer to securing a nation’s growth and influence in an increasingly competitive global landscape. Germany in World War I and Japan in World War II both serve as examples. Third, the restoration of historical glory or lost territories is desired, as exemplified by Italy’s ambitions during World War II to complete its unification. Fourth, the reclamation of former prestige is coveted, Germany in both World War I and World War II, as well as the Austro-Hungarian Empire in World War I, were all confronting this issue. The question remains: Have these four critical issues been resolved by Trump?
Trump’s admiration for the McMillican-Greer Gang has been prominently displayed, with a portrait of James Park, one of America’s most notable territorial expansionists, hung in the Oval Office during his tenure. Much of the U.S. West Coast, excluding Alaska, along with states such as Texas, California, Oregon, and Utah, were annexed under Park’s influence. Consequently, the issue of development space is perceived to have worsened under Trump’s leadership. How could Trump possibly resolve the aforementioned issues through negotiation alone?
Trump’s territorial ambitions toward Canada and Greenland have been tied to the doctrine of "Manifest Destiny", a concept revived from an era when North America was largely undeveloped. In a pre-globalized world, such assertions might not have sparked conflict. However, with Canada now established as a modern democratic nation, the doctrine completely pushed the United States toward another form of "Manifest Destiny". This ideology risks undermining America’s reputation as a defender of democracy. Unlike the 19th-century columnist John L. O’Sullivan, who originally popularized "Manifest Destiny", Trump’s vision is not overtly boastful. His focus on the Panama Canal, Canada, and Greenland aligns with a naval-power strategy. With global warming rendering Arctic waterways navigable, control over the Arctic is deemed essential, advancing a goal to divide the Arctic against Russia, even if Ukraine’s fate remains negotiable.
The Arctic waterway is expected to reshape global trade routes in the future, a development considered transformative. Canada has been labeled a progressive nation, and its potential integration into the U.S. could see it retain that identity. Yet, Trump’s pursuit of Canada is driven by the strategic imperative of dominating the Arctic, a region poised to be divided among Russia, Europe, and the U.S. While Greenland’s inclusion in the U.S. remains optional, Canada’s annexation is viewed as non-negotiable. This perspective partly explains Canada’s consideration of joining the European Union (EU).
Despite not being a European nation except for Quebec’s French-speaking heritage. Canada’s potential EU membership could significantly bolster the EU’s leverage in the Arctic. This move is seen as critical to safeguarding Canadian sovereignty. The issue cannot be fully understood without revisiting "Manifest Destiny". Negotiations between Trump and Russia are unlikely to avert a third world war, as its outbreak hinges not on diplomatic finesse but on the broader strategic landscape shaped since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Trump’s policies are believed to exacerbate rather than alleviate these tensions.
The misinterpretation of "Manifest Destiny" carries grave implications. Acting as a global policeman is itself a form of this doctrine, but a superficial understanding risks escalating tensions further. Should a third world war erupt in the near term, it would not be surprising unless the current strategic deadlock is resolved. The complexity of these dynamics underscores the challenges facing global stability today.
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